ELS: MBN360 Economy
Ghana’s economic recovery may be gaining momentum, but the true measure of its success could depend on one critical question: Are businesses and households finally paying less to borrow?
Renowned audit and advisory firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has warned that the country’s improving inflation outlook and easing monetary conditions must translate into lower commercial lending rates if the recovery is to deliver meaningful benefits to the real economy.
In its review of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget, PwC said Ghana had made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. However, the firm stressed that stronger economic indicators alone would not be enough to convince businesses that the recovery was sustainable.
For many companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, the cost of credit remains one of the biggest barriers to investment, expansion and job creation.
Inflation Falls but Borrowing Costs Remain High
Ghana’s headline inflation currently stands at 5.3%, reflecting a sharp decline from the elevated levels recorded over the past year. The improvement has provided the Bank of Ghana with room to ease monetary policy, with the policy rate now standing at 14.0%.
Despite these gains, businesses continue to face average commercial lending rates of about 17.64%.
The difference between improving macroeconomic conditions and the cost of borrowing has raised concerns about whether the benefits of economic stabilisation are reaching businesses and households.
PwC believes the current environment presents an opportunity for lending rates to decline further. According to the firm, lower inflation should reduce pressure on interest rates and make financing more affordable for businesses seeking to increase production or pursue new investments.
However, if commercial lending rates remain elevated, the gains from lower inflation may have limited impact on private sector activity.
“Businesses will ultimately judge the recovery by whether financing becomes more affordable and supports investment, expansion and job creation,” PwC indicated.
High Lending Rates Remain a Major Business Burden
For years, high borrowing costs have constrained business growth across Ghana.
Many companies have struggled to access affordable financing for working capital, equipment purchases, expansion projects and operational needs. For smaller businesses, the challenge is often more severe because they may have limited collateral and weaker access to alternative sources of funding.
When borrowing costs remain high, businesses may postpone expansion plans, reduce investment or rely heavily on internally generated funds. This can slow productivity growth and limit the ability of firms to hire more workers.
PwC warned that the economic recovery could lose momentum if the financial sector does not transmit the benefits of lower inflation more effectively.
The firm argued that reduced lending costs are essential to unlocking private sector investment and ensuring that businesses can take advantage of Ghana’s improving economic conditions.
Affordable credit could allow companies to expand production, enter new markets, invest in technology and improve efficiency. These developments could strengthen economic growth while creating more employment opportunities.
Recovery Must Reach the Real Economy
The decline in inflation has improved confidence in Ghana’s economic outlook. Greater price stability can help businesses plan more effectively because companies are better able to estimate future costs and make long-term investment decisions.
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PwC said the current macroeconomic environment offers businesses an opportunity to plan with greater confidence. However, financing conditions remain a major test of whether the recovery is reaching the real economy.
Strong headline indicators may signal progress, but businesses and households are likely to focus on practical outcomes.
For businesses, this includes access to affordable loans that support growth. For households, it may mean lower borrowing costs for housing, education, consumer needs and other important financial commitments.
If lending rates do not respond to improvements in inflation and monetary policy, the recovery may appear strong in official statistics while remaining less visible in the daily experiences of businesses and consumers.
PwC’s warning places the cost of credit at the center of Ghana’s next phase of economic recovery.
Fiscal Discipline Could Support Lower Interest Rates
PwC also urged policymakers to maintain fiscal discipline and continue implementing structural reforms.
The firm noted that durable reductions in inflation, exchange rate volatility and fiscal risks would help create conditions for a sustained decline in interest rates.
Stable public finances can reduce uncertainty in the economy and limit pressure on government borrowing. This may create more room for private businesses to access financing at competitive rates.
A stable exchange rate could also reduce risks for banks and businesses, particularly those that depend on imported goods, machinery or raw materials.
PwC believes that lower lending rates, combined with continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms, could stimulate private sector activity and support stronger economic growth.
The firm’s assessment suggests that monetary policy alone may not be enough. Sustained improvements in economic management will be necessary to ensure that lower inflation leads to lasting reductions in borrowing costs.
Cheaper Loans Could Unlock Jobs and Investment
The private sector remains central to Ghana’s long-term economic growth ambitions.
Businesses generate employment, drive innovation and contribute to government revenue. However, their ability to expand depends heavily on access to affordable financing.
Lower lending rates could encourage businesses to invest in new projects and increase production. Small and medium-sized enterprises could benefit significantly because reduced financing costs may improve their ability to compete and grow.
PwC said the ultimate success of the government’s economic programme would depend not only on improved headline indicators but also on whether businesses and households experience tangible reductions in borrowing costs.
Ghana’s recovery must move beyond macroeconomic statistics and deliver measurable improvements in the cost of doing business.
As inflation declines and monetary conditions ease, attention will increasingly turn to commercial banks and the wider financial sector. The next major test will be whether cheaper credit becomes a reality.
If borrowing costs fall meaningfully, Ghana’s economic recovery could unlock stronger investment, higher productivity and more jobs. If lending rates remain stubbornly high, the country risks leaving businesses waiting for the full benefits of stabilisation.
